A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
